Thirdpersonmatt

I wish all the regular readers and visitors of livesharemarkets.com a very happy and prosperous new year. We hope 2009 would be a better off year than the year which passed by.

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May be the year 2008 was one which people would like to forget off as soon as possible. The Indian share markets almost peaked to 21,000 levels and then started the downfall. The much awaited US recession started to show its adverse impacts right from the very first month of the year. Since Jan 2009 has been falling like a pack of cards and ended the year with almost a loss of 54% over the year in sensex. 48 out of the 50 nifty stocks posted negative returns. over the year. Unlike the last year(2007) when FIIs brought about $17 billion to the Indian markets which pushed it up to show a whopping 47%  in  returns, this year the same FIIs pulled out nearly $13 billion from the Indian markets.

The USA financial system deepened into a severe crisis after huge investment banking companies like Lehman Brother, Meriyll Lynch etc crashed and went bankrupt. Finally USA had to agree that its economy was in a recession and that too since Dec 2007. Strange that it took them almost 12 months to accept the hard fact. All the Asian stock markets were also on a downward roll. Nekkei-225 fell by 42% in this year, Hang Seng was down by 48%, Chinese Composite Index was down by 65% and Russia was the leading one with a fall of 72% this year.

The worst came in the Indian markets on Oct 27^th 2008 when it touched a 3 years low of 7697 levels from 21,206 levels achieved on Jan 10,2009. FIIs were pulling money badly from the markets and the exposure of ICICI to some of the oversea drafts pulled its stocks down to 28% in intra day on one fine day in October.  The worst hit area was realty pack with all companies from DLF to Unitech posted huge losses this year. Many IPOs were also called off including one from Emaar MGF Land Ltd which came with a 7000 crore offer. The only and partially successful IPO was from Reliance Power.

The year saw a dramatic rise and then a huge fall in crude oil prices. At one point when crude oil peaked $147/barrel analysts were expecting it to touch $200/barrel. But since then it has taken a big dip due to demand slowdown and touched $35-36 levels per barrel. Indian Rupee against Dollar also played a lot of hide and seek. Dollar was once quoted at sub Rs 38 at one point and then touched almost 51 levels. Infact Rupee fell 19% this year making it the biggest loss since 90’s.But amidst all these factors Indian economy somehow avoided the biggest global crisis ever in the world. Even though the effects of the slowdown in USA and world over is very clearly reflecting in India’s growth story, but still then the GDP is expected to grow at about 5-5.5% this year.

Thanks to some of the decision taken by RBI and Mr.Y.V.Reddy sometime back, that we are atleast in a comfortable position today. From here the impacts of slowdown will further come into picture. Some even expect the Indian share markets to touch Oct lows again with a fall of 20-25% from here. Only time will tell the story better.  On the last trading day of the year Sensex lost 68 points to close at 9647 levels and nifty lost 20 points to close at 2959 levels. ICICI has also cut its home loan rates by 0.5% today.It is applicable for both current and existing customers. With a positive hope that the economy and the Indian markets will recover to some extent in the next year, lets bid adieu 2008 !

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Its the results season again after a complete quarter. As always the results season will kick start with announcement of  the Q3 2009 results from the second largest Software exporter from India, Infosys Technologies. Infosys is all set to announce its Q3 2009 results on Jan 13^th 2009.  The result will be for the period ending 31^st Dec 2008.

Infosys has announced a better than expected results in Q2 2009 where it made a profits of  1432 crores. The margins were better than all other Indian Software companies. Given the global turmoil Infy had given a lower guidance for Q3 and Q4. But the prevailing dollar to INR exchange rates, it is expected to come out with a better results.You can also check the Q2 2009 results of TCS, Wipro and Satyam over here.

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Buy PNB above 532, TGT:538,544 sl:529

Buy PUNJLLOYD above 151, TGT:154,158 sl:149

Sell NIFTYFUTURES below 3000, TGT:2990,2975 sl:3008

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It was a mixed trend the last week of trading in the Indian stock markets. The markets were very volatile the last week towards the end. The $14 billion auto bail out to rescue GM,Chrysler failed in the USA and it had some sort of impact too in the Indian markets. One good news which came was in the form of Inflation figures which were down to 8% in the last week as against 8.4% in the previous week. This was mainly due to  falling crude oil prices and reduction in petrol and diesel prices recently.

The IIP figures or the growth in the Industrial output contracted by 0.4% for the first time in 15 years. It now stands at 1.2% as against about 13% in the corresponding period last year. It is a type of Industrial recession in India. The Govt may or may not accept these facts currently, but India is also under sereious Industrial Recession.

Meanwhile world bank has predicted that India would grow at 5.8% in the year 2009-10. We all should be very amused to see these facts. Because at this point in time hardly any other economy in the world but for China,Russia and Brazil is showing some positive growth. Last week Russia also announced that it is under recession and same is the situation with Japan. The stimulus package of Rs 32,000 crore was simply not sufficient for any sort of trigger in the economy.

RBI has also indicated that it will be bringing more such stimulus packages in the coming days. Data shows that till now almost 25 US banks have gone bust or bankrupt till now since USA entered the recession phase from December last year. The $1 trillion bail out package announced by Mr.Obama brought some cheers which hardly lasted for a while.

On the last trading session of the week Sensex managed to gain 44 points to close at 9690 levels and nifty closed flat at 2921 levels. As said here earlier that sensex will face resistence at 10,000 levels and the same happened last week. 3000 in nifty is also a big resistence. Nikkei-225 and Hang Seng fell by 5% each on Friday last. Meanwhile analysts are expecting that crude oil could march towards $25-30/barrel in the coming days due to lack in demand from major countries like USA,China etc.

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